Being a football fan is a curious thing. Unlike most people, we can hardly wait for summer to be over. We look forward to the dog days of August. We long for a crisp, cool autumn day. As offseasons go, this one hasn't been too bad. I've spent a lot of my spring and early summer indulging in Patriots porn. I've re-watched SB51 in some form - full game with half-time I recorded on my DVR, 3 Games to Glory V, one-hour synopsis versions on NFL network, various videos of Brady's 466 yards passing, 4th quarter and OT highlights - maybe a dozen times, not to mention a variety of Tom Brady-themed videos on YouTube.
But Patriots porn, like actual pornography, just isn't the same as the real thing.
I mean, that's what I heard...
Training camp opens this week with preseason games soon to follow. I've got a few things I'll be watching for as I look ahead to 2017...
Injuries
I'm a New Englander so I'm pessimistic by nature.
And yes, this is my attempt at a reverse jinx.
Jacoby Brissett
Brissett is an underplayed subplot of the Brady/Garoppolo melodrama. How Brissett plays in the preseason will have a big impact on Garoppolo's future. If Brissett plays well, shows he's making progress in the system, improves his accuracy as a passer, it gives Belichick and the Patriots options when it comes to the Brady/Garoppolo decision.
As I've said before, I don't see Brady retiring if the Patriots win SB52, not with a chance to be the first QB to win three in a row. And if New England does win SB52, we can assume Brady played pretty well and his goal of playing until he's 45 starts looking less like crazy talk and more like an inevitability.
If that's the case and Brissett plays well in the 2017 preseason, I could imagine a franchise-and-trade scenario where Belichick has the chance to keep Garoppolo from signing with the Jets or Bills.
Dwayne Allen
Just catch a pass, please.
Third Tight End
Getting the third tight end position nailed down wouldn't be such a big deal if it wasn't for Gronk's injury history and Allen's issues catching passes during OTAs. With James Develin a mortal lock at fullback, I don't see how the Pats can afford to carry more than three tight ends. Matt Lengel, James O'Shaughnessy and undrafted rookie Jacob Hollister appear to be the betting favorites. O'Shaughnessy has special teams chops and a name that seems destined for Boston. I liked what little I saw of Matt Lengel last year. Hollister and the rumors of his athleticism are certainly intriguing but there's probably a reason he went undrafted (spoiler alert, you won't even find his name on that list of top TE prospects for 2017). But then there's this from Pro Football Focus…
Player comparisons: Julius Thomas, Miami Dolphins
Hollister – like Thomas – is an above-average athlete at the tight end capable of stretching the field deep while consistently terrorizing defenses at the short-to-intermediate levels. Neither are ever going to be proficient run blockers, but both are guys who can be lined up in multiple spots to create mismatches within the passing game.
Bottom Line: Hollister could prove to be one of this years steals of the draft. While he does have a number of concerns regarding his ability as a run-blocker, he’s got legitimate skills as a receiving option capable of hurting a defense at all three levels of the field regularly. He’s a fluid route-runner who is capable of creating late separation and is strong at the catch point. If Hollister is able to add some strength while maintaining his athleticism we could be looking at future star.
Hollister – like Thomas – is an above-average athlete at the tight end capable of stretching the field deep while consistently terrorizing defenses at the short-to-intermediate levels. Neither are ever going to be proficient run blockers, but both are guys who can be lined up in multiple spots to create mismatches within the passing game.
Bottom Line: Hollister could prove to be one of this years steals of the draft. While he does have a number of concerns regarding his ability as a run-blocker, he’s got legitimate skills as a receiving option capable of hurting a defense at all three levels of the field regularly. He’s a fluid route-runner who is capable of creating late separation and is strong at the catch point. If Hollister is able to add some strength while maintaining his athleticism we could be looking at future star.
Yeah, I'll be looking for Jacob Hollister during the preseason.
Punt Returns
In my pigskin nightmares, it's the 4th quarter, there's 0:44 left to play, the game is tied, and Cyrus Jones is waiting under a punt that's dropping, nose down, out of a cloudless October sky.
Kony Ealy
Was Ealy's 3-sack with an INT performance in SB50 just a statistical anomaly or a sign of what he could be on a week over week basis? Will the coaching and culture in New England help Ealy reach his ceiling as an NFL player? I can only hope the answers to those questions are yes and yes.
Ealy should get enough snaps in preseason for Patriots Nation to either buy a lot of Kony Ealy jerseys or by spending their underemployed downtime calling in to local sports radio stations to complain about Bill Belichick giving up a second round pick for a guy who was a bust in Carolina.
One of my favorite Patriots-related pastimes is listening to Sully from Dorchester arguing Bill Belichick is an idiot. Hey, Sully! Don't go too far west; mind your step or you might fall off the edge of the world!
Interior O-Line
I think it's fair to say the starters are set so who gets snaps for the backup spots? Is Ted Karras better than anyone seems to think he is? Does Cameron Fleming get some run at guard? Will rookie Tony Garcia win the swing tackle job? New England has eight offensive linemen on the roster who are rookies or second-year players so there's a story to be written here.
Nate Solder (now that Rob Ninkovich has made it pretty clear he'd retire before playing for another team) is my guess for the shocking-trade-of-a-veteran-nobody-saw-coming this preseason. Solder isn't that old (27) and he's experienced a renaissance with the return of OL coach Dante Scarnecchia but he's about to become a free agent and left tackles get paid. The franchise tag for offensive linemen is $14.27 million for 2017; Tom Brady's cap hit for 2017 is $14 million. Solder has a family to take care of and there's going to be at least one team that will be willing to give Solder a multi-year deal with Top 5 money.
Does a Solder trade sound crazy? Yeah, it does. I did call it shocking, didn't I? If you think it couldn't happen though, you must've forgotten Logan Mankins.
Chemistry Class
I'd expect Belichick to manage Brady's snaps during the preseason (see Injuries, above). Still, I'm looking forward to every opportunity to see Brady throwing to Brandin Cooks.
As to there not being enough footballs for the 2017 Patriots skill position players, I'm not worried even a little bit because… Tom Brady. Brady is the best at identifying mismatches pre-snap. Less will be even more for Julian Edelman in 2017. With Cooks, the development of Malcolm Mitchell, the return of Rob Gronkowski, and James White or Dion Lewis out of the backfield, there are only so many targets opposing defenses can cover. Josh McDaniels will design plays that will set up Cooks game-breaking speed and Brady will know who's going to be open before the ball is snapped.
That's not even mentioning Danny Amendola, Andrew Hawkins or long shot undrafted rookie slot machine Austin Carr, only one of whom are likely to make the Final 53.
No doubt we'll have to wait for the regular season to see anything more than a glimpse of what the Patriots passing offense will be in 2017. I guess I'll just have to hope for shots of Brady and Cooks, bro-ing out on the sidelines in August.
A Quarter of a Tank of Gas
How much does David Harris have left? Can he complement and mitigate injury risk to Dont'a Hightower? Can Harris be a mentor to Elandon Roberts or will his presence and snaps hinder Roberts development? Does the addition of Harris help put Shea McClellin and Kyle Van Noy in better situations to make plays?
My guess is that Harris will turn out to be the hidden gem of one of the best offseasons the Patriots have had with Belichick running the show. Whatever Harris has lost physically he's gained in experience. Belichick will put him in situations where he can succeed and I would expect Harris to seize the opportunity to get a ring. I think he'll love the Patriots locker room and the Patriots locker room will love Harris.
Getting to Opposing Quarterbacks
I'm not particularly worried about this but maybe that's just me. Okay, that is just me.
I think Trey Flowers is a budding superstar who should get to double digits in sacks this season. I buy the thinking that David Harris allows Matt Patricia to use Dont'a Hightower as a pass rush option. Kony Ealy, Shea McClellin, and Lawrence Guy can and will contribute. If Elandon Roberts can't cover running backs then send him on a blitz up the A gap. With ball hawks Stephon Gilmore and Malcolm Butler on the corners and Devin McCourty at safety, getting consistent pressure on QBs should provide plenty of opportunities for turnovers.
As for the preseason, I'll be looking for rookies Derek Rivers and Deatrich Wise. And yes, I'll be reading way too much into their performances against other rookies and second teamers.
Getting Some Run
I loved LeGarrette Blount and I'm going to miss the TD celebrations with the End Zone Militia but it's hard to argue the pigskin math, however cruel it may be. Blount, at 30-years old, is at the wrong end of the gridiron actuarial chart.
Enter 26-year old Mike Gillislee and 27-year old Rex Burkhead. They join 25-year old James White, 26-year old Dion Lewis, and roster bubblers 23-year old D.J. Foster and 27-year old Brandon Bolden. (I've already penciled in 22-year old LeShun Daniels, Jr. for the practice squad.) It will be interesting to see how Josh McDaniels uses this diversely talented and in-their-primes position group in the preseason.
You Can't Win a Super Bowl in August
Having said all of that, I will try not to read too much into anything the Patriots do before the season starts. We won't see much of Tom Brady and we likely won't see Rob Gronkowski at all. It will make sense to manage Dont'a Hightower's snaps. Opponent match-ups will continue to dictate regular season game plans for New England while the preseason is all about fundamentals. Maybe it's not really real football but it's close.
I'll take it.
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