Confirmation Bias

It seems the longer we don't know something, the more confident we are that we do.

As the winter of discontent for Malcolm Butler and Jimmy Garoppolo moves into a spring that has hardly been a harbinger of glorious summer here in New England, we at least have some confirmation of what we already thought we knew.

The Saints won't be signing Butler to an offer sheet and giving up pick #11 in the 2017 NFL Draft.

The Browns won't be trading the #1 pick, period, full stop, child please.

We knew those things, didn't we?

While the odds that Butler and Garoppolo will be playing for the Patriots and Bill Belichick will take the first day of the draft off to golf or go boating have increased (seemingly), nothing is certain until it is.

If you're a GM for any of the other 31 franchises, would you make a deal with Bill Belichick? I mean, if you have any other options. Desperation will make anyone do crazy things, of course, and what NFL GM isn't? They've got, on average, about 4 years to win and they're playing in a league with the New England Patriots, a team that has won 2 of the last 4 Super Bowls. If there's any team in the league you should not be trading with, it's the Patriots. But again, you're desperate. Or crazy. I don't think we should discount that possibility.

So, what up with Butler and Garoppolo?

Why They Stay…

The Saints have already given up Brandin Cooks for the Pats first round pick (#32). Given the one position Belichick struggles to draft is WR, this is a win for New England, regardless of who the Saints take at #32.

Belichick isn't going to give up a cost-controlled pro bowl cornerback just to get pick #32 back, either. New Orleans would need to give up additional draft picks on top of #32 or this is just not happening.

It's a similar dynamic with Garoppolo and the Browns. Nobody thought they'd give up #1 for Jimmy G but the Browns also have pick #12. Until I saw a consensus developing in pigskin pundits' and bobbleheads' mock drafts sending Clemson QB Deshaun Watson to Cleveland, I thought a draft day deal was a possibility. Then I started wondering if I'd roll the dice on Jimmy Garoppolo's small data sample or Colin Kaepernick and his complete set of Samsonite luggage. Kaepernick at least has a Super Bowl on his curriculum vitae as compared to Jimmy G's not quite six quarters worth of work for the Pats. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick' beard is still available, admittedly for a reason, but I have no idea what the Browns are trying to do on offense, so, why not? Jay Cutler's blurry butt is also available but we're mentioning his surly propensity for turnovers only as a matter of due diligence.

Brock Osweiler is supposed to be released outright or have his contract re-worked to make him a more appealing trade asset but however hilarious it might seem, let's not forget there's a possible future where Osweiler is the Browns opening day starter at QB.

My point is, the Browns have several medium to good, bad and hilarious options at QB beyond Jimmy G. If Watson is available at #12, Garoppolo is not going to Cleveland.

Why They Go…

Value.

Belichick has a price tag on every player on the roster not named Tom Brady.

Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore are the ideal cornerback pairing for Belichick, giving New England the ability to match up with a variety of WR1s, whether they're cut from the mold of Antonio Brown or Julio Jones. Despite the loss of Logan Ryan, the Patriots are still pretty deep at defensive back with Eric Rowe, Cyrus Jones, Justin Coleman, Jonathan Jones and even DB/S hybrid Duron Harmon. (Fun fact: Malcolm Butler is older than any of those players.) That depth gives Belichick the option to trade but only if the return provides the value the cost-controlled Butler has to New England's defense.

As noted above, that would have to be more than the #32 pick in the draft. While I personally doubt the Saints will come up with a package of picks that would entice Belichick into trading Butler, however slight, it's still a possibility.

The same is true for Garoppolo. He's a cost-controlled asset and a low deductible insurance policy for Tom Brady. The Patriots could always sign a Chase Daniels (for example) as a backstop to Jacoby Brissett's development so, again, Belichick could make a deal if terms and conditions can be agreed.

I don't think the #12 pick alone gets the deal done but I could certainly be wrong about that. Cleveland has plenty of draft assets and could put together an enticing package (12, 52, 108?) of picks. If they do, Belichick will drive Garoppolo to the airport. Okay, he'll have a coaching assistant take care of that.

Kicking Tires…

Rumors of Darrelle Revis coming back to the Patriots seems like having one of your friends telling you your crazy ex-girlfriend of like two girlfriends ago has been posting on Facebook how much she misses you (but you blocked her two girlfriends ago so you didn't know). Admit it, there's a moment where you consider it. The sex was amazing, after all.

So, yeah, with the Malcolm Butler rumors unresolved I admit it. I considered a Revis reunion. I read one post that argued Revis wasn't as bad as we thought in 2016; he was playing hurt and finished better than he started. He wasn't a CB1 or even a CB2 but he could be a serviceable nickel/slot defender and replace Logan Ryan.

Okay, I could probably talk myself into that but just like that crazy ex-ex-girlfriend, there was a reason why things ended badly in the first place.

I'd rather hope for Cyrus Jones to get his groove back in 2017.

Just about any player with any name recognition who winds up on the open market gets a comp to the Patriots so no surprise that Dolphins draft bust Dion Jordan had his tires kicked by Doug Kyed on NESN.com. Jordan was a highly regarded prospect when he was drafted and he played college ball for Belichick BFF, Chip Kelly. Perhaps it's worth noting here that when Kelly was HC for the Eagles there were rumors of a trade for Jordan that ultimately never happened.

Since going to Miami as the #3 pick in the 2013 draft, Jordan has spent nearly as much time suspended for failing drug tests as he has on the field. He also appears to have a fondness for cheeseburgers as he's packed on more than 25 pounds since being weighed and measured at the NFL combine.

I guess I'd rather have Jared Odrick, who has visited Foxborough for a workout with the Patriots but I won't cross Jordan's name off the list of possibilities. I don't think anything will happen, if it happens, until after the draft. If Belichick finds an EDGE defender in the third or fourth round, I wouldn't see Jordan getting an invite to camp.

While we're just making stuff up - and considering a comment by the above mentioned Belichick BFF Chip Kelly on Colin Kaepernick…

I'm not sure if the NFL is blackballing Kaepernick but it's certainly curious that a 29-year old QB with Super Bowl experience and a 4:1 TD to Interception ratio and a 90.7 passer rating last year still doesn't have a job somewhere.

Given Kelly's endorsement and a possible future with Jimmy Garoppolo playing for Cleveland, would Belichick bring in Kaepernick as a backup QB on a one-year deal? Maybe I'm just looking for an opportunity to stick a thumb in Roger Goodell's eye but I can't help but be intrigued by Kaepernick's athleticism and value as a backup, getting coached up by Josh McDaniels and his staff. It's probably a better deal for Kaepernick who could rehabilitate his image - Kaepernick is active in the community in a way that Robert Kraft just might appreciate - and still have an opportunity to sign one more big deal at age 30.

If I'm kicking tires, I think Kaepernick has the best wheels.