I Heard Once That Defense Has Something To Do With Winning Something

You hear people refer to it as “multi” these days but what they’re really talking about is balance. Offense and defense. Passing and running. Stopping the pass and stopping the run. The Patriots have been a team that needed to outscore its opponents since 2007. Scoring 34 points a game will make that seem like an okay strategy until that one junk punch Sunday when you score 17.

It’s so, so easy to forget those 34 points was an average, not a guarantee.

 

Coming across some recent comments by Pepper Johnson regarding veteran Brandon Spikes and rookie Jamie Collins got me to thinking that the development of the Patriots defense could put them in a position to make that next 17 point game by the Pats’ offense a win.

The interior D-Line is improved…

All that Sturm und Drang over the release of Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick seems kind of ridiculous now, doesn’t it? Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly, Marcus Forston and (assuming he recovers from his latest medical challenge) Armond Armstead provide a DT rotation that can stop the run and provide pressure up the middle. Kelly’s proven ability to get to the QB should only benefit from lining up next to Wilfork. Offensive lines can’t double both of them. If Armstead can’t go I’m hoping UDFA Cory Grissom makes the roster because I love a fat man whose nickname is “Pork Chop.” It seems unlikely New England carries more than four – and could carry as few as three – DT given the ability of some of their defensive ends to swing inside.

The DE’s will put pressure on the QB…

Rob Ninkovich is relentless. I’d mention that it’s a contract year for Ninkovich but the guy already plays with his hair on fire so I’m not sure that matters. Ninkovich should also continue to benefit from being underrated despite a stat line in 2012 that included 8 sacks, 5 forced fumbles and 4 fumble recoveries. Ninkovich benefits from always going 1-on-1 (he’d be the last one I’d double). But let’s face it. A lot of what happens for the Patriots D in 2013 hinges on Chandler Jones and the fabled second-year leap.  

After the starters there’s more potential than proof but there’s certainly plenty of that potential stuff. Marcus Bernard flashed in 2011 with 7.5 sacks for the Browns and could project to a situational pass rush role. After a red-shirt rookie season, Jake Bequette has shown some of the promise that comes with being a third-round draft pick but as we all know, draft status won’t be enough to keep him on the roster if he doesn’t start to show some production on the field. Rookie seventh-round pick Michael Buchanan has all the physical tools and tremendous (all together now) upside. He has the size to set the edge and showed the ability to get to the passer during his college career at Illinois.

Speaking of upside, Jermaine Cunningham reminds us that teacher has been writing “fails to work up to his abilities” on his report card for the last three years. Well, it’s a contract year for Cunningham, too, so perhaps he delivers on expectations in 2013 and earns a big payday from the Buffalo Bills in 2014. I’d be happy if that happened, don’t get me wrong, but I’d also see Cunningham’s release out of training camp as addition by subtraction, assuming it means Bequette or Bernard is ready to take his place on the depth chart. Maybe somebody like Jason Vega steps up in preseason action. We only need two from the list of Bernard, Bequette, Buchanan, Cunningham and Vega to show they can help this team. I’d probably keep three or four of these guys on the Final 53.

I’ve noticed a number of posts by Pats’ fans calling for a return to the 3-4 to get frosh linebacker Collins on the field with Spikes, Jerod Mayo and Dont’a Hightower but I like a 4-3 featuring Jones, Kelly, Wilfork and Ninkovich, too. Also, I don’t think they have enough 3-4 defensive end types on the roster to make it the base defense in 2013.

Hybrids…

Hearing that Hightower was getting reps in 1-on-1 pass rushing drills could be an indication that whether I like it or not, we could see a return to the 3-4 defense that carried Belichick’s defenses to championships in New York and New England. (Also, the 3-4/4-3 thing is overrated in the age of multi.) Hightower came out of college something of a hybrid LB/DE and is also looking to make the second-year leap with Jones. Collins is another athletic hybrid LB/DE who played safety his freshman year in college but unlike Hightower, hasn’t had his hand in the dirt in camp and is being projected to play more in space covering running backs and tight ends. Mayo is one of the better all-around linebackers in the NFL and Spikes – another contract year guy – is arguably the best run-stuffing inside linebacker in the league. I mean, seriously, I’m afraid of Brandon Spikes. I write his name and I pee a little bit in my pants.

Metaphorically, of course.

There’s solid if unspectacular depth at LB. If Dane Fletcher is fully recovered he’s a credible backup; a better option in passing situations than Spikes. Niko Koutouvides, Mike Rivera and Jeff Tarpinian will be pushed by rookie Steve Beauharnais for depth/special teams options. A.J. Edds has intriguing size and speed but has struggled to stay on the field, with just 11 games played in his three years in the NFL; he missed the 2012 season entirely and I’ve yet to read his name mentioned in training camp reports so yeah, he’s included here for due diligence purposes only, I guess.

Turning the corner…

The best thing about Aqib Talib’s troubled past is the historical context. As for the here and now, Talib comes to camp an offseason award winner and has been lauded by position coach Josh Boyer for his leadership, along with slot corner Kyle Arrington. Talib re-signed with the Pats on a one-year deal and based on early results looks primed to play his way to a big money, long-term contract in 2014 with the Raiders. Alfonzo Dennard has been looking like a guy who has made that second-year leap so far in camp, giving New England a solid trio atop the CB depth chart, as long as Dennard can avoid jail and/or league-imposed down-time. So far, Ras-I Dowling has been healthy and when healthy has shown he can handle a starter’s role.

Based on reports from recent camp action, rookie Logan Ryan could legally change his last name to “Was Beaten Deep” but I still expect him to make the Final 53. Marquise Cole has shown up more on special teams but could play a larger role should Dennard land on Go To Jail (do not pass Go, do not collect $200) or Dowling pulls a hammy.

That just happened, didn’t it?

Safety first…

It’s somewhat troubling that Devin McCourty is still sporting the red non-contact jersey but at least he’s on the field practicing, running about, etc. Like Mayo at linebacker, the more I see McCourty on the field, the better. Mixing and matching Steve Gregory with the Wilson Twins (Adrian and Tavon) should provide New England with a playmaking last line of defense. Gregory has surprised (me, anyway) with a strong showing early in camp. The Cardinals took Adrian Wilson off the field in passing situations last year but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Patriots move him up to a linebacker spot on 3^rd downs where he could cover tight ends or blitz.

Rookie Duron Harmon, UDFA’s Justin Green and Kanorris Davis and (obligatory reference) former rugby star Nate Ebner are hoping the Patriots will carry five safeties in 2013. Ebner’s special teams prowess may give him a slight edge here which means Harmon, Green and Davis are hoping the Pats carry six safeties in 2013. I’ll guess draft pick Harmon spends plenty of time with Ebner on special teams.

Bottom Line Time

The defense is talented and deep with a nice mix of youth and veteran leadership. Most of the key players from last year (Jones, Wilfork, Ninkovich, Hightower, Spikes, Mayo, Talib, Arrington, Dennard, McCourty, Gregory and Tavon Wilson) are back. The veteran additions (Kelly and Adrian Wilson), rookies (Collins, Ryan, Harmon) and prodigal sons (Bequette, Cunningham, Fletcher, Dowling) add athleticism and depth. Obviously they need to prove it on the field but this defensive unit should be significantly better than 2012 and it will be a disappointment if they aren’t Top 10 in 2013.

If you’re thinking I’m crazy to think that basically the same guys (10 of 11 starters return) who finished 25^th in 2012 can make that kind of a jump in 2013, I’ll acknowledge you have what looks like a point but let me note the following:

• The 2012 Patriots’ defense allowed 20.7 points per game, just about a point more than the league-leading (in total yards allowed) Steelers defense, which gave up 19.6 points per game. New England ranked 9^th in the league in points allowed.
• They were also ranked 9^th in rush yards allowed at 101.9 per game. Stopping the run is a fundamental element of good football. I’m just saying.
• They were as bad against the pass as they were good against the run so they’ve added players (Kelly, Collins, Adrian Wilson) that will help them get off the field on 3^rd Down.
• Jones, Hightower, Tavon Wilson and Dennard were rookies in 2012 and it was McCourty’ first full season at safety. Talib now has a full offseason in the Patriots’ system (and he’s playing that all-important contract year); all of them should provide improved play in 2013.
• Spikes and Ninkovich are also playing for contracts.
• Spikes, as noted above, is scary even by NFL standards.

Am I talking myself into this? Maybe. What if I am; what if it’s a wholly fabricated delusion?

It doesn’t mean it won’t come true.

Heard this randomly on the radio recently and was reminded again just how brilliant Bob Dylan’s music always has been.